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Global In-Shell Macadamia Production Set To Near 340,000 Tons in 2024

June 05, 2024

According to a recent forecast by the World Macadamia Organisation, global in-shell macadamia production is projected to reach 339,200 metric tons (3.5% moisture) in 2024, representing a 7.5% year-on-year increase. On a kernel basis, this corresponds to an estimated 91,860 metric tons.

A report from the news and trading platform Mundus Agri indicates that while South Africa, the leading producer, is still in the process of harvesting, the exact figures remain uncertain. Nonetheless, early indications point toward a projected 15% increase in the in-shell crop size, potentially reaching 92,000 metric tons, accompanied by promising nut quality. However, local industry insiders have voiced concerns about the significant amounts of in-shell nuts being sold and the resulting impact on the kernel market. As suppliers prioritize selling in-shell nuts for quick cash, this will inevitably lead to a decrease in the volume available for kernel production.

While the flowering conditions for macadamia trees were favorable, subsequent dry weather has meant that only a modest 0.9% increase in macadamia production is expected for China, with an estimated harvest of 68,500 metric tons (in-shell basis). In 2024, Guangxi and Guangdong, two important macadamia-producing provinces, are expected to produce 10,000 metric tons and 2,000 metric tons of the nut, respectively. In 2023, propelled by online promotions, China witnessed record-breaking purchases of in-shell macadamia nuts. The Chinese market has also seen a noticeable shift in consumer demographics, with younger consumers exhibiting a growing preference for products with novel flavors, such as snacks and baked goods incorporating macadamia nuts.

In Australia, the current crop season commenced with higher farm gate prices and increased demand, and domestic consumption has also seen growth over the past 12 months. Despite localized disruptions due to rain at the start of the harvest period, in-shell macadamia production is forecast to surge by 16% to 56,000 metric tons. Owing to higher-than-expected sales of in-shell nuts in 2023 and a downward revision of last year’s production estimate, the kernel inventory in 2023 fell short of anticipated levels. This year, the sales ratio of in-shell nuts to kernels is projected to return to a more typical level.

Kenya’s macadamia production is expected to witness an 8.2% increase in 2024 to reach 46,000 metric tons (in-shell basis). However, growers have also reported enduring prolonged periods of continuous rainfall, which could potentially impact the country’s output.

Among the top 10 macadamia-producing countries, the United States, Malawi and Brazil are expected to see a decline in production in 2024. In the United States, in-shell production is projected to decrease slightly from last year’s 15,100 metric tons to 15,000 metric tons (−0.7%), while Malawi’s production is expected to drop from 12,540 metric tons to 12,000 metric tons (−4.3%). Brazil’s production is anticipated to experience a larger decrease of 15% due to drought, falling from last year’s 7,685 metric tons to 6,500 metric tons.

Although dry weather has also posed challenges in Guatemala, production is predicted to increase from 14,500 metric tons to 15,000 metric tons (+3.4%) as the country begins to experience the positive effects of enhanced industry cohesion and collaboration. Vietnam’s in-shell macadamia output is expected to rise from last year’s 9,000 metric tons to 10,000 metric tons (+11%). Mexico and Costa Rica are also forecast to see higher production in 2024, with projected in-shell outputs of 2,000 metric tons and 5,000 metric tons, respectively.

Image: Pixabay

This article was translated from Chinese. Read the original article.

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