Peru’s Blueberry Export Forecast Cut as El Niño Weighs on Late-Season Volumes

According to a recent report by Blueberries Consulting, the Peruvian Blueberry Growers Association (Proarándanos) has made a downward revision to its fourth forecast for fresh blueberry exports in the 2026/27 season. The revised estimate stands at approximately 382,000 metric tons, more than 5% below the association’s August forecast of 404,000 metric tons.

At the start of the 2026/27 season, Peru’s blueberry exports were higher than in the previous season. By week 35, exports had reached 95,000 metric tons, up 48% from the 64,000 metric tons registered during the same period of last season. Cumulative exports already represented 25% of the latest projected season total, compared with only about 17% at the same point last season.

While the August forecast indicated that exports in the 2026/27 season would increase from the previous season, the latest projection puts total exports roughly in line with the previous season’s 383,000 metric tons.

Although exports have increased significantly year on year through week 35 of the current season, volumes are expected to decline from week 36 onward. The latest downward adjustment is largely concentrated in the remainder of the season. From week 36 through to the end of last season, Peru exported approximately 318,000 metric tons of blueberries. For the same period of this season, exports are projected at approximately 286,000 metric tons, down about 10% year on year.

Exports are currently expected to peak in week 42 at approximately 16,500 metric tons, 16% below the August forecast and 21% lower than the peak-week volume of 20,900 metric tons recorded in the 2025/26 season.

According to Proarándanos, the downward revision to the peak-week forecast is the clearest indication of El Niño’s impact on production during the middle and latter parts of the season. The increase in exports earlier this season was partly driven by the expansion of early-maturing varieties and an increase in cultivated area, while the effects of weather conditions are expected to be concentrated in the second half of the season.

The latest forecast also lowered expectations for organic blueberry exports. The projected final export volume has been reduced from approximately 31,000 metric tons to 25,000 metric tons, about 18% below the August forecast.

Organic blueberry exports are now expected to peak in week 48, at approximately 1,200 metric tons, a sharp contrast with the peak of 1,900 metric tons recorded in week 40 of the previous season.

Proarándanos noted that unfavorable weather conditions continue to persist, leaving open the possibility of further downward revisions to the export outlook. The association is scheduled to conduct its fifth assessment of the 2026/27 season in October.

Image: Pixabay

This article was translated from Chinese. Read the original article.