Peru Further Cuts 2026/27 Blueberry Export Forecast to 366,000 Tons

According to a recent report by Blueberries Consulting, the Peruvian Blueberry Growers Association (Proarándanos) has revised down its fresh blueberry export forecast for the 2026/27 season to approximately 366,000 metric tons. The latest estimate is 4.2% lower than the 382,000 metric tons projected in September and 4.4% below the approximately 383,000 metric tons exported in the previous season.

Despite a nearly 15% increase in blueberry planting area in Peru, exports are still expected to fall below the level recorded in the 2025/26 season. As of week 38, Peru had exported approximately 136,000 metric tons of fresh blueberries, up 18.7% from about 115,000 metric tons during the same period of last season. However, the association cautioned that these figures do not reflect the significant shift in export trends observed in recent weeks.

Export projections for the current season have been revised downward in each of the past three forecasts. The August forecast estimated exports at approximately 404,000 metric tons, which was reduced to 382,000 metric tons in September and has now been lowered further to 366,000 metric tons. The difference between the initial and latest projections is approximately 38,000 metric tons, or 9.4%.

The September report indicated that the production adjustments were mainly concentrated in the middle and later stages of the season. The fifth forecast has now confirmed this trend, showing a significant decline in Peru’s fresh blueberry export volumes in recent weeks.

From week 39 through the end of the year, the association expects total exports to reach approximately 229,000 metric tons, down 14.2% from the 268,000 metric tons exported during the same period of the 2025/26 season. Of this volume, exports from week 39 to week 46 are forecast at 108,000 metric tons, compared with 156,000 metric tons during the same period of last season, representing a decline of 48,000 metric tons (−31.2%). In other words, Peru’s fresh blueberry exports remained ahead of last season’s pace as of week 38, but the outlook for the coming weeks has seen a significant downward revision.

In September, the association continued to identify week 42 as the peak export week, with volumes expected to reach approximately 16,500 metric tons. The latest forecast, however, indicates that instead of a single peak week, exports are now expected to remain at a relatively stable level throughout the eight-week period from week 39 to week 46, averaging around 13,500 metric tons per week.

The fifth forecast confirms that the impact of the El Niño phenomenon has been more pronounced than initially expected, in contrast to the strong start to the season. This latest adjustment is reflected not only in the projected total export volume but also in the expected timing of export concentration, with the previously anticipated peak period now appearing more evenly spread out.

Meanwhile, the forecast for organic blueberries remains largely unchanged from the September projection. Total organic blueberry exports are expected to reach 24,900 metric tons, with the peak export week forecast for week 47 at approximately 1,100 metric tons. In comparison, the peak week for organic blueberry exports last season occurred in week 40, when volumes reached 1,900 metric tons.

Image: Pixabay

This article was translated from Chinese. Read the original article.