Global Prune Supply Tightens as Demand for Large Sizes Grows

At the recent 19th China Nut and Dried Fruit Food Exhibition, held from April 16 to 19 in Hefei, Anhui province, Erik Zuloaga from Fruteec Chile presented a report on the Chilean prune industry. Global prune production in 2025/26 is estimated at approximately 191,300 metric tons, down roughly 7% from the previous season. Chile, the world’s largest producer and exporter of prunes, continues to play a critical role, with its output expected to account for about 36% of the global total.

Chile’s prune production in the 2025/26 season is forecast to rise by about 5% compared with the 2024/25 season. However, weather conditions in growing regions have not been entirely favorable. On March 16, the Colchagua Valley, one of the main growing areas, received more than 50 millimeters of rain, which affected some areas during the last drying stage. Damage assessments are still ongoing. Flowering began early this season, and the harvest started in early February 2026, ahead of the usual schedule.

Consumer demand for prunes in the Chinese market continues to rise, with a strong preference for large products in the 30/40, 40/50 and 50/60 count-per-pound categories. This trend has directly tightened the global supply of large-size prunes. The average size of Chilean prunes in 2025/26 is forecast at about 75 count per pound, with the availability of premium large-diameter products expected to decrease even further. At the same time, a growing focus on healthy foods among Chinese consumers has boosted the performance of pitted, additive-free and sterilized prunes in premium retail channels. Nonetheless, traditional candied-style prunes in the 100/120 and larger count categories continue to hold a stable market share in snack chains and mass-market channels.

Meanwhile, prune production in the United States and France is showing a long-term declining trend. This makes Chile’s strategic value as the world’s most stable and reliable supply source increasingly prominent. Industry insiders have reportedly advised buyers to secure supply contracts early to manage the risks associated with the tight supply and size mismatches.

Chile’s total global prune exports in 2025 are expected to reach 87,600 metric tons, up by 4% from the previous year. Although exports to China edged down by 4%, significant gains in markets such as Poland, Mexico and Germany point to a diversified global demand structure.

The long-term growth of Chile’s prune industry remains on a solid foundation. The current planted area of D’Agen variety prunes stands at about 13,600 hectares, and this is expected to increase by 21% to roughly 16,500 hectares by 2030. Stable prune profitability is driving new orchard investments, concentrated mainly in the O’Higgins, Metropolitan and Maule regions.

Facing the combined pressures of shrinking global production, limited supplies of large sizes and strong Chinese demand, the 2025/26 prune market will increasingly test supply chain planning capabilities. Chile’s position as the world’s most reliable prune origin means that its supply stability and quality advantages will become even more pronounced in the coming cycle. For buyers, locking in sizes and contracts early will be a key strategy to navigate the challenges that they need to face in the new season.

Images: 19th China Nut and Dried Fruit Food Exhibition