Iranian Pistachios: Plummeting Production, Export Pressures, Stronger Prices

At the recently held 2026 CFNA China International Tree Nuts Conference, Mehrdad Agah, a board member of the Iran Pistachio Association, presented an industry report on Iranian pistachios, offering attendees an in-depth look at the core dynamics of the market. Iran is the world’s second-largest pistachio producer and exporter, but the country’s pistachio sector is currently grappling with falling output, export headwinds and the impact of regional conflicts. At the same time, innovative applications — exemplified by the Dubai chocolate phenomenon — are driving structural growth in global demand for pistachio kernels. Buoyed by this strong demand, pistachio prices have climbed from below $7 per kilogram in 2023 to over $9 per kilogram in 2025 and are expected to surpass $12.50 per kilogram in 2026.

Production: A Sharp Swing

In marketing year 2024/25, Iran enjoyed a bumper pistachio harvest. According to IPA data, production was estimated at approximately 225,000 metric tons (in-shell equivalent). With carry-in stocks of about 15,000 metric tons from the previous season, the total inventory at the start of the 2025/26 season stood at roughly 240,000 metric tons.

Entering 2026, however, the outlook reversed sharply. Owing to high temperatures, drought, frequent irrigation disruptions caused by widespread power shortages, and the impact of an off-year in the production cycle, the IPA now anticipates that Iranian pistachio production will plummet to 118,000 metric tons — even lower than the 130,000 metric tons forecast by the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council in June. This dramatic reduction from 225,000 metric tons to 118,000 metric tons in just two years makes the supply contraction in Iranian pistachios a foregone conclusion.

Stocks: From Lows to Record Highs

According to previous IPA data, Iranian pistachio stocks were virtually depleted by the end of the 2024/25 season. As of Aug. 22, 2025, only 10,000 metric tons (in-shell equivalent) remained. However, the situation changed dramatically during the 2025/26 season. By June 2026 (the 10th month of the marketing year), the remaining stocks stood at an estimated 89,000 metric tons, and year-end carryover is projected to be 75,000 metric tons, equivalent to 31% of the opening stocks. This points to a potential record-high carryover at the end of the season.

This dramatic swing from depletion to surplus reflects the severe impact of geopolitical conflicts on export logistics — large volumes of goods have been unable to ship out and have consequently piled up in storage.

Export Pressures and Structural Shifts

Alongside production volatility, Iran’s pistachio exports are undergoing significant structural changes. The 2024/25 season was a stellar year for Iranian exports. IPA data show that total exports reached 202,000 metric tons (in-shell equivalent), up 50% from the previous season. In the 2025/26 season, however, the export picture deteriorated sharply. By the end of June 2026, cumulative shipments stood at 130,000 metric tons, accounting for 54% of total stocks, with full-year exports now forecast to fall to 141,000 metric tons (59% of stocks).

Notably, the export composition is shifting. The share of pistachio kernels in total exports has continued to rise, reaching a peak of 47% in both the previous and current seasons. Iranian pistachio kernels have attracted strong global demand owing to their variety diversity, higher oil content (which makes them more suitable for roasting) and competitive pricing.

Exports to China: From Peak to Trough

China is a key destination for Iranian pistachios. In the 2024/25 season, Iran’s pistachio exports to China reached 27,947 metric tons, up 50% from the 18,683 metric tons recorded in the previous season. China was once regarded as a “price anchor” for Iranian pistachio consumption. However, in the 2025/26 season, affected by tensions between the United States and Iran, exports to China suffered a precipitous decline. By April 2026, cumulative shipments to China were only 4,631 metric tons (in-shell equivalent), an 83% drop from the 27,787 metric tons registered in the same period of the previous season. By June 2026, exports to China stood at just 4,777 metric tons (in-shell equivalent), down 83% year on year.

Demand Driving Exports

Despite supply-side pressures, demand for Iranian pistachios — particularly kernels — remains robust, driven mainly by the Dubai chocolate phenomenon and the broadening application scenarios for pistachio kernels. Beyond traditional uses in baking and confectionery, pistachio kernels are now being widely incorporated into pistachio pastes, spreads, pistachio lattes, pistachio oil for food and cosmetics, pistachio sauces, and other diversified products. Key markets for pistachio kernels include the European Union, the Middle East and India.

Image: Pixabay