El Niño Limits Peru’s Blueberry Export Growth to 5.6% in 2026/27

According to the third forecast released by the Peruvian Blueberry Growers Association (Proarándanos), Peru’s fresh blueberry exports are expected to reach approximately 404,000 metric tons in the 2026/27 season, representing a 5.6% increase compared with the previous season’s 382,934 metric tons.

While the total export volume is still expected to grow, the association warned that the projected figure remains below the industry’s full potential owing to the impact of the El Niño phenomenon.

El Niño Impacts Blueberry Production

The addition of approximately 3,500 hectares of new blueberry plantings in Peru means that exports could have been expected to increase by around 20% compared with the 2025/26 season. However, higher temperatures have negatively affected crop yields, and the expansion of planted acreage has only partially offset the resulting production decline. Consequently, the export growth forecast for the current season has been revised down to 5.6%.

According to information provided by industry experts, the elevated temperatures associated with the El Niño phenomenon may persist through the first and second quarters of 2027. As the season progresses, export forecasts may be subject to further significant adjustments.

Peak Shipments Expected in Week 43

The export peak is anticipated to occur in week 43, with shipments reaching approximately 19,750 metric tons. Compared with the previous season’s peak of 20,940 metric tons in week 40, this season’s peak is expected to occur three weeks later and at a lower volume.

From week 31 to week 40, export volumes are expected to continue increasing and remain above the previous season’s levels through week 36, before falling below the previous season’s levels thereafter. The association attributes the faster shipment pace at the beginning of the season mainly to the availability of early-maturing varieties and the expansion of planted acreage.

Between weeks 18 and 40, cumulative exports are expected to reach 170,071 metric tons, representing an 8.7% increase compared with the 156,487 metric tons exported during the same period of the 2025/26 season.

Organic Blueberry Production Projected To Decline by 11.4%

Organic blueberry production is forecast to reach approximately 31,000 metric tons, down from 35,000 metric tons in the previous season, representing an 11.4% decline.

The peak shipment volume for organic blueberries is expected to occur in week 42, reaching approximately 1,500 metric tons. In comparison, the previous season’s peak occurred in week 40, with shipments reaching 1,900 metric tons.

Image: Pixabay