Peru’s 2026 Hass Avocado Exports to China Forecast at 43,822 Tons

According to the Peruvian Hass Avocado Growers Association (ProHass), Peru’s Hass avocado exports in 2026 are now projected at 710,679 metric tons, 1.7% below the 722,754 metric tons exported in 2025, as the sector faces the impact of El Niño. This is in contrast to an earlier estimate at the start of the season, which predicted a 6% increase in exports. In 2024, another year affected by El Niño, Peru exported 523,035 metric tons of Hass avocados, 9.6% below the 578,465 metric tons exported in 2023.

The downward revision is mainly attributable to the effects of El Niño. Higher temperatures have resulted in smaller-sized avocados developing higher dry matter levels than larger fruit. As a result, smaller fruit has accounted for the majority of shipments during the early part of the season.

Arturo Medina Castro, general manager of ProHass, said that larger fruit had not reached the required 22% dry matter level at the start of the season, prompting growers to delay harvesting. He noted that dry matter levels could vary significantly even within the same batch, with many growers only becoming aware of the issue after the fruit had reached the market. Importers also raised complaints, he added, forcing growers to wait three to four weeks for all of the fruit in a given batch to reach the required dry matter level.

Of the projected 710,679 metric tons of total exports, Europe is expected to account for 67%, up from 63% in 2025. The United States is projected to take 9%, down from 10%, while Chile’s share is expected to rise to 10% from 9%. China is expected to maintain its 6% share, while Japan and other markets will account for 3% and 5%, respectively, unchanged from 2025.

ProHass data show that Peru is expected to ship 80,193 metric tons of Hass avocados to Asia this year, up 6% from the 75,365 metric tons registered in 2025. Within Asia, China is the main destination with an expected 43,822 metric tons, down 1.7% from the 44,576 metric tons recorded last year and accounting for 55% of Peru’s Hass avocado exports to Asia. Japan is expected to receive 21,760 metric tons, up 6% from 20,496 metric tons, accounting for 27% of shipments to Asia. South Korea is projected to receive 13,006 metric tons, up 41% from 9,202 metric tons, accounting for 16%. Thailand is expected to receive 671 metric tons, up 76% from 381 metric tons, while other Asian markets are projected to receive 933 metric tons, up 31% from 710 metric tons.

Image: Pixabay

This article was translated from Chinese. Read the original article.