INC Tree Nut Report: China Strengthens Its Position in Global Production and Trade

At the recent 2026 CFNA China International Tree Nuts Conference, Pino Calcagni, second vice chairman of the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council, delivered a presentation on the global tree nut trade and market outlook, systematically reviewing global production and trade patterns as well as the pivotal role of the Chinese market.

Global Tree Nut Production Stabilizing at 6.14 Million Metric Tons in 2025/26

Calcagni noted that global tree nut production recorded a 3% compound annual growth rate over the past decade, with 2025/26 output estimated at approximately 6.14 million metric tons, of which almonds, cashews, walnuts, pistachios and hazelnuts account for an estimated 95% of total production.

By category, almonds continue to lead global production, with an estimated 1.71 million metric tons in 2026/27. Macadamias are the fastest-growing category, with a CAGR of approximately 8%, while pecans are maintaining steady growth and are expected to increase to 170,000 metric tons in 2026/27.

Global In-Shell Exports Hit a Record 6.1 Million Metric Tons

In 2025, global in-shell tree nut exports reached a record 6.1 million metric tons, with a 10% CAGR from 2020 to 2025, led by cashews (13%) and macadamias (12%). Among shelled tree nut exports, walnuts recorded the fastest growth (12%), while almonds remained the largest category.

In terms of import market patterns, Asia is the largest importing region for in-shell nuts, accounting for 91% of the global share, with cashews leading at 74% of in-shell imports. Shelled nut imports are dominated by Europe (53%), followed by Asia at 31%, with almonds (35%) and cashews (28%) as the main categories.

China: World’s Largest Producer of Walnuts, Macadamias and Pine Nuts, with Growing Export Role

In the 2025/26 season, China’s in-shell tree nut production is estimated at 1.76 million metric tons, making it one of the world’s largest tree nut producers. Calcagni emphasized China’s dual role: the country is currently the world’s largest producer of walnuts, macadamias and pine nuts. Over the past five years, China’s total tree nut production has expanded at a 9% CAGR, with macadamias and hazelnuts recording the fastest growth (both at 29%), followed by pecans at 24%.

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On the export side, walnuts account for over 80% of China’s in-shell tree nut exports, with shipments more than tripling since 2020, primarily destined for Western and Central Asian markets. Shelled walnut exports have grown even more rapidly, increasing more than eightfold between 2020 and 2025, accounting for over 90% of total shelled nut exports.

On the import side, most in-shell tree nut import categories contracted in 2025, but shelled nut imports remained broadly stable, dominated by almonds, cashews and hazelnuts, with Australia and Vietnam supplying nearly two-thirds of the total.

In his concluding remarks, Calcagni noted that global tree nut production has stabilized at around 6 million metric tons after a decade of sustained expansion, with international trade continuing to grow, supported by diversified supply chains and resilient demand. China is transitioning from being the “largest producer” to a role that balances production and export. Imports continue to complement domestic supply, supporting processing and consumption. Overall, the outlook for the global tree nut industry remains positive.

Images: 2026 CFNA China International Tree Nuts Conference, INC