China Set To Share #1 Position in Grape Exports With Peru in 2025/26

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service recently released its Fresh Apples, Grapes, and Pears: World Markets and Trade report, indicating that global production of fresh apples and fresh pears in the 2025/26 marketing year is projected to decline by 5% and 2%, respectively, owing to adverse weather and other factors. By contrast, global table grape production is forecast to increase by 545,000 metric tons to reach 30 million metric tons.

Table Grapes

Global fresh table grape production in the 2025/26 marketing year is projected to increase by 545,000 metric tons to 30 million metric tons, as output gains in China, India, the European Union and Peru more than offset declines in Turkey, the United States and Chile. China’s production is expected to rise by 800,000 metric tons to 15 million metric tons, marking the seventh consecutive year of growth. By contrast, Turkey’s output is anticipated to decline by 455,000 metric tons to 1.5 million metric tons, primarily owing to damage caused by spring frosts.

As export growth from the major suppliers China and Peru outweighs export declines from Chile and Mexico, global fresh table grape exports are expected to edge up to 4.2 million metric tons. Imports by Russia, Vietnam, Indonesia and Kazakhstan are all forecast to increase, driven by China’s strong export performance. Meanwhile, U.S. imports are expected to rise slightly to 915,000 metric tons, surpassing last year’s record level.

Despite a slowdown in vineyard area expansion in recent years, ongoing yield improvements, supported by technologies such as rain shelters and varieties featuring year-round availability, have sustained growth in China’s table grape production. As a result, China’s exports have more than doubled over the past four years, while reliance on imports has declined. China’s table grape imports in the 2025/26 marketing year (June to May) are forecast at 100,000 metric tons, down 45% from four years earlier.

China’s table grape exports during the 2025/26 marketing year are projected to increase by 16% to 770,000 metric tons. If realized, this would represent another step forward after China surpassed Chile last year, making China, for the first time, the world’s joint-largest fresh table grape exporter alongside Peru, whose table grape exports for 2025/26 are also estimated at 770,000 metric tons.

China’s exports are primarily destined for Southeast Asian markets, with Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia accounting for nearly 60% of the total volume. Geographic advantages mean that China faces limited competition in these markets and typically commands a market share in excess of 70%. By contrast, the vast majority of Peruvian and Chilean table grape exports are shipped to North America and Europe, where they compete with South Africa, and where the main shipping windows for all three countries overlap from December through April.

Fresh Apples

Global fresh apple production in the 2025/26 marketing year is forecast to decline by 5% to 81.7 million metric tons, the lowest level in five years, as production losses in China and Turkey more than offset gains in the United States. In China, output is projected to fall by 2.3 million metric tons to 47.0 million metric tons, reflecting a reduced cultivation area in its two major producing regions and the impact of adverse weather. Turkey’s production is expected to plunge by 57% to 2.0 million metric tons following severe spring frost damage. By contrast, U.S. production is anticipated to increase by 256,000 metric tons to 5.0 million metric tons, driven by higher output in Washington State.

Global fresh apple exports are projected to edge down to 6.1 million metric tons. U.S. exports are expected to increase by 51,000 metric tons to 890,000 metric tons, while shipments from China and Chile are each forecast to decline by approximately 30,000 metric tons on account of lower production. Turkey’s exports are anticipated to fall sharply by 157,000 metric tons to 65,000 metric tons, resulting in the country dropping from the world’s eighth-largest apple exporter to 12th place.

Fresh Pears

Global fresh pear production in the 2025/26 marketing year is forecast to decline by 2% to 26.1 million metric tons, as production losses in China and Turkey more than offset gains in the United States. China’s output is expected to fall by 480,000 metric tons to 20.5 million metric tons because of drought conditions in Shandong and Shaanxi provinces, marking the first decline in seven years. Turkey’s production is projected to drop by 30% to 461,000 metric tons following damage from spring frosts in 2025. Meanwhile, U.S. production is forecast to grow by 103,000 metric tons to 565,000 metric tons. While this represents a rebound from the record low of the 2024/25 marketing year, output remains at historically low levels not seen since the 1970s.

Global fresh pear exports are expected to edge up to 2.0 million metric tons, as increased exports from China, the United States and the European Union outweigh declines from Turkey. Despite lower production, China’s exports are projected to remain strong, rising by 46,000 metric tons to 700,000 metric tons. Imports by Indonesia and Russia are forecast to increase by 20% and 9%, respectively, driven by strong shipments from China. With higher production, U.S. exports are expected to grow by 28,000 metric tons to 100,000 metric tons, while imports are forecast to decline by 12,000 metric tons to 80,000 metric tons. This would return the United States to net exporter status, after becoming a net importer for the first time in the previous marketing year.

Images: Pixabay (main image), U.S. Department of Agriculture (body image one)