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Growth in Global Table Grape Production Forecast for 2023/24

January 21, 2024

According to the Fresh Apples, Grapes, and Pears: World Markets and Trade report recently released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service, global fresh table grape production is forecast to rise by 490,000 metric tons to a total of 28.4 million metric tons in the 2023/24 season, benefiting from increased supply from China. A surge in exports from both China and Chile is anticipated to compensate for a decline in exports from Turkey and the United States, keeping global exports relatively stable at 3.7 million metric tons. China’s consistent growth in production is projected to propel its exports to 480,000 metric tons, securing its position as the third-largest exporter globally. Meanwhile, Peru’s export volume is expected to remain stable at 595,000 metric tons, affirming its status as the world’s top supplier of table grapes.

On account of favorable growing conditions and improved cultivation practices, China’s grape production in the 2023/24 season is expected to surge by 750,000 metric tons to reach 13.5 million metric tons. Investments in pest control, breeding, cultivation and storage technologies have not only elevated fruit quality and prolonged the supply season but also enabled almost all provinces to produce grapes. This increased supply is anticipated to drive exports to 480,000 metric tons, an increase of 23%, particularly to Asian markets such as Indonesia and Vietnam. Owing to the abundance of high-quality domestic table grapes, China’s demand for imports is expected to decline for the fifth consecutive year, plummeting to 130,000 metric tons, a reduction of more than 25%.

During the winter, China’s table grape supply is primarily sourced from Southern Hemisphere countries such as Peru, South Africa and Chile. On account of sufficient rainfall, Chile’s table grape production is estimated to rebound to 745,000 metric tons, up by 89,000 metric tons, with an expected export volume of 565,000 metric tons. The United States stands as Chile’s largest overseas market, accounting for nearly half of its total exports.

Peru’s table grape production is expected to remain stable at 776,000 metric tons. On the basis of production forecasts and sustained strong demand from the Northern Hemisphere, exports are anticipated to stay largely unchanged at 595,000 metric tons. If achieved, Peru will surpass Chile to maintain its position as the world’s largest table grape exporter.

Benefiting from favorable growing conditions and new varieties coming into production, South Africa’s table grape output is expected to increase by 24,000 metric tons to 342,000 metric tons. This increase in production is anticipated to drive exports up by 25,000 metric tons to a total of 310,000 metric tons.

Australia’s production is forecast to grow by 10,000 metric tons to a record-breaking 220,000 metric tons, marking a full recovery to pre-pandemic levels. The dry spring and summer in Australia, coupled with ample water for irrigation, have created optimal conditions for the budding and flowering of grapes, contributing to the expected high yields. With this increased supply of high-quality grapes, exports are projected to rise by 9,000 metric tons to 140,000 metric tons.

In the Northern Hemisphere, key grape-producing countries are projected to encounter fluctuating yields due to varying weather conditions. Owing to favorable growing conditions, India’s table grape production is poised to witness a slight increase to 3.0 million metric tons. Meanwhile, exports are anticipated to rise by 13,000 metric tons to 295,000 metric tons, with an increase in exports to the European Union, India’s largest overseas market.

Turkey’s production is forecast to decrease by 320,000 metric tons to 1.9 million metric tons, which is primarily attributable to delayed rainfall in the Aegean region causing issues with downy mildew disease. The anticipated reduction in supply is expected to translate into a decrease in exports, with projections indicating a drop by 47,000 metric tons to a total of 180,000 metric tons.

Italy, a major producer in the European Union, suffered significant losses following heavy rainfall in May and June. Consequently, table grape production in the European Union is forecast to decrease by 248,000 metric tons to a total of 1.3 million metric tons. Despite these challenges, the grapes that did develop benefited from high temperatures in July, resulting in excellent quality overall. The combination of higher transportation costs and a diminished supply is anticipated to cause exports to decrease by 23,000 metric tons to a total of 150,000 metric tons. Meanwhile, imports are expected to increase by 57,000 metric tons to 630,000 metric tons.

The United States is poised to experience a production increase of 67,000 metric tons, reaching a total of 878,000 metric tons. Nevertheless, despite the overall rise in production, an anticipated decrease in exportable volume is expected to cause the total export volume to decline by 37,000 metric tons to 210,000 metric tons. Record-high shipments from Mexico to the United States, sufficient to offset the early-season decline in supply from Chile, are anticipated to contribute to a modest increase in U.S. imports, which are expected to total 760,000 metric tons.

Image: Pixabay

This article was based on a Chinese article. Read the original article.

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