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Avocados Expected To Become Second Most Traded Tropical Fruit by 2030

March 23, 2023

According to a recently issued report by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, avocados are likely to surpass pineapples and mangos to become the world’s second biggest tropical fruit item in terms of trade volume by 2030, trailing only bananas.

Global avocado exports contracted by 0.8% to approximately 2.3 million metric tons in 2020 on account of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on supply chains alongside a small crop in Mexico, the world’s largest avocado producer. However, on the whole, the global avocado market expanded robustly in the decade between 2010 and 2020.

Favorable weather conditions and good market prices stimulated avocado exports in Peru, Colombia and Kenya. In 2020, these three countries all achieved double-digit growth in avocado exports and together accounted for one-quarter of the world’s total exports.

Among all kinds of tropical fruit, avocados are the smallest in terms of production volume but are demonstrating the fastest growth in output. It is forecast that global avocado output will reach 12 million metric tons by 2030, more than three times that in 2010. Avocado plantations have so far been concentrated in just a few countries and regions, with the top 10 producers accounting for 80% of the world’s total output. Although new producers are rapidly catching up, approximately three-quarters of global production in 2030 is anticipated to still originate from countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, given the favorable growing conditions in this region.

Global avocado exports are anticipated to total 3.9 million metric tons and $8.3 billion in 2030, which would make avocados the second most important tropical fruit item by trade volume and one of the most valuable fruit commodities.

Despite facing increasingly tough competition from emerging exporters, Mexico is expected to remain the world’s top avocado producer and exporter in 2030, largely owing to strong market demand from the United States. Mexico’s avocado production is estimated to maintain an annual growth rate of around 5.2% over the next 10 years, and the country’s share of global avocado exports is projected to reach 63% in 2030.

The United States and the European Union are forecast to remain the predominant avocado importers in 2030, together absorbing over 70% of total global exports. Demand from other markets, especially China and the Middle East, is also expected to rise substantially.

China’s avocado imports peaked in 2018 with a volume of 43,900 metric tons. Although this figure plummeted in the following two years because of the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, it rebounded in 2021. By 2022, the import volume had essentially returned to pre-pandemic levels. Industry insiders are optimistic that China’s avocado imports will continue an upward trend in the years to come.

Image: Pixabay

This article was translated from Chinese. Read the original article.

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