At the 19th China Nut and Dried Fruit Food Exhibition, held from April 16 to 19 in Hefei, Anhui province, Andrew Waring, director and manager of strategic sourcing and marketing at MWT Foods [3], presented an overview of the global macadamia sector, detailing production challenges from the 2025 season and the supply outlook for 2026.

According to Waring, performance among major macadamia-growing regions diverged sharply in the 2025 season. In Australia, persistent heavy rainfall and cyclones from March to June 2025 reduced production by an estimated 50%, with lower yields leaving most growers unprofitable.

South Africa also saw production fall short of expectations. Low market prices led growers to reduce their spending on inputs, further impacting yields. The market there remains fragmented, with many small-scale processors beginning to export in-shell nuts.

China’s production [4], by contrast, performed well. The 2025 harvest was strong, with the quality and price both appreciated by the domestic market. Timely pre-bloom rains, adequate moisture during the fruit set period and improved orchard management all drove higher output.

Kenya also recorded a good harvest, with several large processors completing equipment upgrades and achieving significantly higher whole-kernel rates. Based on estimated figures for in-shell nuts at 3.5% moisture content, global macadamia supply in 2026 is expected to reach 392,980 metric tons, up notably from 341,050 metric tons in 2025. By country, China is forecast at 108,000 metric tons, South Africa at 96,700 metric tons, Australia at 59,100 metric tons and Kenya at 51,900 metric tons. Production increases of varying degrees are also anticipated.

Waring also emphasized that stakeholders will continue to face the challenge of shifting global climate patterns and more frequent extreme weather events in the 2025/26 season. In Australia, rainfall and flooding have again affected the harvest period, creating uncertainty for the 2026 crop outlook. South African producers remain cautiously optimistic, with new orchards entering commercial production and expected to drive moderate growth. In China, flowering conditions have been favorable, although the new harvest is still some months away. Kenyan output is expected to be slightly higher than in 2025, but persistent drought and unseasonal rainfall are causing concern.

On the consumer side, new product development in China and Hong Kong in 2025/26 showed a clear trend toward functional new flavors [5]. References to 78% dark chocolate and minerals such as magnesium, iron and zinc have appeared frequently, while traditional flavors such as wasabi remain popular. Warehouse club stores have shown strong acceptance of large-size in-shell nuts and mixed nut categories. Multinational candy companies are also combining macadamias with truffle flavors to create a premium halo effect.

The conference sent a clear signal: the global macadamia industry is at a critical stage where rising production and consumption upgrading are advancing in parallel, but extreme weather remains the single largest source of uncertainty. China’s role in quality, innovation and setting new market standards is expected to continue strengthening.

Images: 19th China Nut and Dried Fruit Food Exhibition