The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service recently released its China: Tree Nuts Annual [3] report, offering projections for the country’s 2025/26 production of major tree nuts, including walnuts [4], macadamias [5], pecans, almonds [6], pistachios and hazelnuts.

Walnuts

China is the world’s largest walnut producer, accounting for roughly 55% of the global supply. For the 2025/26 season (September to August), the country’s commercial in-shell walnut production is forecast at 1.55 million metric tons. Xinjiang, the largest producing region, contributes nearly 40% of national output and is expected to witness a strong harvest this autumn due to favorable growing conditions.

Yunnan, the second-largest producing region, which accounts for roughly 30% of national output, may see a decline in production. Industry sources report that walnut trees planted in high-altitude areas were exposed to cold weather during the flowering period, leading to lower yields. Meanwhile, prolonged summer drought in northwestern regions could slightly reduce output in Shanxi and Shaanxi provinces; however, the overall impact on national production is expected to be limited.

China’s walnut industry faces challenges across the entire value chain. Oversupply has led to significant price volatility, discouraging investment in improved cultivation practices and harvest management. Quality control also remains inconsistent, and many producing regions lack adequate post-harvest handling infrastructure. Even in Xinjiang, where modern facilities have been established, a shortage of technical expertise has resulted in inconsistent kernel quality. These constraints continue to hinder the industry’s development and weaken its competitiveness in the international market.

Almonds

China’s almond production in the 2025/26 season (August to July) is estimated at 22,000 metric tons, down 8% from the previous season, which is partially attributable to the adverse effects of spring sandstorms on pollination. Most almonds are grown in Shache County in southern Xinjiang, where local varieties are known for their thick shells and relatively low yields. According to Chinese media reports, the almond cultivation area in Xinjiang — currently estimated at 63,000 hectares — has declined in recent years owing to damage caused by low winter temperatures in conjunction with high temperatures during the flowering period.

Pistachios

China’s pistachio production in the 2025/26 season (September to August) is projected at 300 metric tons, with private enterprises continuing to conduct pilot planting trials in Xinjiang.

Macadamias

China’s in-shell macadamia production in the 2025/26 season (September to August) is forecast at 91,000 metric tons, marking an increase of over 30% from the previous season. Industry sources attribute this growth to higher bearing volumes, improved cultivation techniques and favorable weather conditions, including abundant rainfall in major producing regions.

Yunnan accounts for more than 70% of China’s total macadamia output, with Guangdong and Guangxi also serving as key production areas. Since 2018, China’s macadamia production has grown rapidly, with a compound annual growth rate of 25% over the past six years, making the country the world’s second-largest producer after South Africa.

A key challenge for China’s macadamia industry is that most trees, especially in Yunnan, are planted on hillsides, limiting mechanization, a constraint similar to that faced by the walnut sector.

Hazelnuts

China’s in-shell hazelnut production in the 2025/26 season (September to August) is projected at 65,000 metric tons, up 18% from the previous season. Although the nationwide cultivation area remains stable at around 123,000 hectares, yields are expected to continue improving in the coming years as more hybrid hazelnut trees enter the bearing stage. Additionally, Liaoning province harvests approximately 40,000 metric tons of wild hazelnuts annually (in-shell basis); these local varieties are characterized by smaller-sized nuts.

Pecans

China’s in-shell pecan production in the 2025/26 season (September to August) is expected to reach 6,000 metric tons, an increase of over 70% from the 2024/25 season, mainly driven by higher bearing volumes. Industry sources note that production this season could have been even higher had the high temperatures and heavy rainfall in late June not significantly affected yields in Anhui and Jiangsu provinces.

The total pecan cultivation area in Anhui, Jiangsu and Yunnan exceeds 80,000 hectares, with many trees not yet bearing or only producing very low yields. The greatest challenge facing China’s pecan industry is the lack of sufficient cultivation expertise, particularly in terms of pest and disease control. Industry insiders note that pecans are among the most difficult and costly tree nuts to grow, typically yielding less per hectare than other nut crops. In the 2024/25 season, an outbreak of black spot disease severely impacted pecan harvests in the Yangtze River region.

Image: Pixabay

This article was based on a Chinese article. Read the original article [7].