In late December 2025, China’s Ministry of Finance and the State Council Tariff Commission announced adjustments to the country’s tariff policy. Effective Jan. 1, 2026, China terminated the temporary preferential tariff treatment for cranberries and fully restored most-favored-nation rates. As a result, import tariffs on fresh cranberries (HS 08104000) and dried cranberries (HS 08134090) have risen from 15% to 30% and 25%, respectively. The change does not introduce new taxes but rather marks a return to standard tariff levels.

China first introduced temporary tariff reductions on cranberries in January 2017 to expand consumer choice and encourage imports of specialty agricultural products. Over the following nine years, cranberry imports grew steadily under the preferential regime.

Global cranberry production and trade remain concentrated among a small number of countries. The United States, Canada and Chile are the world’s three largest producers, with the United States in a dominant position. Wisconsin alone accounts for more than 60% of total U.S. output, with approximately 21,000 acres under cultivation and an industry value approaching $1 billion. In 2024, U.S. exports of cranberries and related products reached $351 million, about 2% above the 2019–2023 five-year average, representing roughly 45% of global exports.

According to market research firm Spherical Insights, the global cranberry market was valued at $2.18 billion in 2023 and is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 4.61% through 2033 to reach a total value of $3.42 billion. This growth is expected to be driven largely by demand in the Asia-Pacific region. In particular, China has emerged as one of the fastest-growing consumer markets [3] — in 2024, its cranberry extract market reached 2.85 billion Chinese yuan ($409 million).

The recent tariff adjustment is expected to weigh most heavily on overseas exporters. For U.S. suppliers, higher import duties may weaken price competitiveness and lead to a gradual loss of market share. Chilean exporters [4] have also expressed concern that higher tariffs could reduce overall trade efficiency. Industry analysts suggest that companies heavily dependent on the Chinese market may respond by expanding e-commerce channels, optimizing supply chains or shifting focus toward emerging markets such as India, where cranberry tariffs are being lowered.

For China, the impact of the adjustment is twofold. Rising import costs may push up raw material prices for health supplement and food manufacturers, potentially leading to higher retail prices [5] in the short term. At the same time, the policy may accelerate the development of China’s domestic cranberry industry.

Although China’s cranberry market has long relied on imports, Fuyuan in Heilongjiang province has recently established Asia’s largest cranberry cultivation base, covering approximately 280 hectares, with output exceeding 3,000 metric tons in 2024. The base is also experimenting with space-based mutation breeding, a method that exposes seeds to cosmic radiation in the hope of producing useful genetic variations for future cultivar development. These efforts aim to support the creation of domestically registered cranberry varieties and gradually improve the competitiveness of China’s local cranberry supply.

Image: Unsplash

This article was translated from Chinese. Read the original article [6].