According to Peruvian media reports [3], the global blueberry trade is currently valued at approximately $7 billion per year. However, as production continues to expand rapidly, the balance between market supply and demand is undergoing a significant shift.

In recent years, climate change has led to several consecutive seasons of high blueberry prices. Now, the global market is entering a new phase marked by surging export volumes and falling prices.

The primary factor behind the current price correction is a sharp increase in Peru’s blueberry supply, which has surpassed the absorption capacity of traditional markets. The 2025/26 Peruvian blueberry season [4] began in May, with production reaching record levels. From May to August, Peru exported 71,957 metric tons of blueberries, an impressive 137% increase compared with the same period of last year. However, the export value rose by only 44%, reflecting a substantial decline in average export prices.

This July, the export price for Peruvian blueberries averaged about $5.60 per kilogram, 38% lower than that in July 2024. In August, as supply continued to exceed the level of previous years and market absorption weakened, the average price witnessed a year-on-year drop of 41%, standing at $5.95 per kilogram.

In addition to Peru’s expanding supply, competition from Mexico, Morocco and South Africa has intensified. These countries are increasingly targeting Peru’s major export markets, including the United States and Europe, placing further pressure on international prices.

Peru’s blueberry exports remain heavily concentrated in traditional markets such as the United States and Europe, which are now showing signs of saturation. Although global demand for blueberries continues to grow, it is far outpaced by Peru’s rapidly expanding production. This imbalance has sharply compressed profit margins for producers and exporters alike and may signal the onset of a low-margin, highly competitive cycle in the industry.

Despite strong export volumes, blueberry profitability remains under pressure, a trend reminiscent of the avocado industry [5]. Logistical bottlenecks, particularly congestion at the Port of Callao, have further hampered shipping efficiency and impacted fruit quality.

During the anticipated production peak around week 42, conditions could become even more challenging. Shipments that week are typically expected to exceed 20,000 metric tons, testing both the capacity of the international market to absorb the volume and the efficiency of the logistics services required for timely distribution.

Traditionally, blueberry prices experience seasonal increases in July and August, but this trend has not held in the current season, raising concerns in the market. By the end of 2025, Peru’s blueberry exports are projected to exceed 400,000 metric tons, up approximately 25% year on year, while the export value is expected to grow by only 8–13%. This reflects the combined effects of oversupply and declining prices, which continue to limit overall industry value growth.

Against this backdrop, market diversification and product differentiation have become essential strategies for Peru to sustain its global leadership in the blueberry industry. In particular, Asia, especially China, has exhibited rapidly growing demand for large, premium-quality blueberries, making it the most promising market. At the same time, varietal innovation and structural upgrades have become crucial for mitigating price pressures. By cultivating varieties with superior flavor, firmer texture and longer shelf life, producers can tap into higher-value niche segments.

For Peruvian growers and exporters, the challenge has shifted from expanding production to optimizing sales. The industry must strike a balance between scale and value, converting volume growth into a sustainable, long-term profitability model.

Image: Pixabay

This article was based on a Chinese article. Read the original article [6].