According to sources in China’s fruit industry, a weekly report provided by the Chilean Cherry Committee of Frutas de Chile to Chinese importers and retailers shows that the export volume forecast for the 2025/26 Chilean cherry season [3] has been significantly revised down to approximately 110 million 5-kilogram carton equivalents, or 550,000 metric tons, representing a 12.1% decrease compared with the previous season.

This latest revision stands in contrast to the official export forecast formally released by the Chilean Cherry Committee on Oct. 30. At that time, the committee preliminarily projected that exports for the 2025/26 season would reach 131 million cartons, totaling about 655,000 metric tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% from last season’s 626,014 metric tons. However, as the season progressed and the impacts of weather events and the earlier harvest start became clearer, some industry insiders questioned whether this forecast might be too optimistic.

According to the Chilean Cherry Committee’s week 50 report, the primary reason for the export forecast revision was adverse weather conditions toward the end of spring, which had a material impact on the final exportable volume. The full impact of the weather was not entirely apparent during the forecast research conducted in mid-October but became clearer as harvesting advanced.

The report also indicates that this season’s harvest in Chile started 7–10 days earlier overall compared with previous years. This advance was particularly pronounced in the Maule and O’Higgins regions, especially for the main varieties Lapins and Regina. The forward shift of the harvest period led to a more concentrated release of export volume within a shorter timeframe.

As of week 50, Chile had cumulatively shipped approximately 298,749 metric tons of cherries (59.7 million boxes or 16,236 containers), representing 54% of the total projected export volume. Moreover, as evidence that this volume is more concentrated at the beginning of the 2025/26 season than in the past, recent weekly shipment volumes have shown a year-on-year decrease, with week 50 shipments down 16% compared with the same week of last season.

In terms of varieties, the export season for Santina, a main early-to-mid-season variety, is virtually complete. Its total export volume for this season is approximately 174,452 metric tons, representing a 4% decrease compared with the same period of last season, a 10% decrease compared with the entire previous season and 22% below the initial estimate.

There is growing evidence that the timing of the 2025/26 season is even earlier than that of 2024/25. Industry insiders noted that market participants may want to rethink any assumptions they have that last season’s supply patterns and pricing dynamics will repeat themselves. Strategies based on delaying purchases in anticipation of a late-season volume surge and price correction may carry greater risk this year, as supply is arriving earlier and may be absorbed by the market on a different timeline.

Image: © 2025 Produce Report